The eFuel Alliance and Porsche Consulting have examined the potential of eFuels for the European transport sector in a joint study. According to this, fossil fuels could be completely replaced by renewable fuels from 2046. Worldwide, over 500 hydrogen and eFuels projects have been announced. More than 120 companies want to ramp up the production of eFuels by 2030.
EU Commission expects long-term high demand for liquid fuels
The basis of the investigation is an impact assessment by the EU Commission for the 2040 climate targets. The Commission assumes that in 2040 around 37 percent of cars, 62 percent of trucks, and more than 80 percent of ships and airplanes will still rely on liquid fuels. Despite the ramp-up of electromobility, more than half of the energy demand in 2050 will be covered by liquid fuels.
The bottleneck analysis of the study concludes that the scenarios for the ramp-up of electromobility predicted by the EU are not realistic in the short term due to insufficient availability of certain raw materials such as nickel or lithium and in the long term due to a lack of expansion of the power grid. The demand for liquid fuels will therefore be even greater from 2040 than assumed by the EU Commission.
Market volume of over 200 billion litres possible by 2045
If the full industrial potential is exploited, the EU market for eFuels could reach a volume of more than 200 billion litres of gasoline equivalent by 2045, according to the study. The potential is therefore greater than the required demand for renewable fuel in the EU. There is no distribution problem between aviation and shipping and road traffic.
“If the EU succeeds in rolling out electromobility as planned, our industry can displace fossil fuels from the market before 2050. Airlines, shipping companies, and motorists need not fear distribution battles. eFuels will become affordable through industrial production, and we will achieve this by 2045 if politics makes it possible," says Ralf Diemer, Managing Director of the eFuel Alliance.
Over 80 percent of projects focus on eMethanol
Around 300 of the announced projects aim at the production of eFuels for the transport sector. According to the study authors, these projects could produce around 20 billion litres by 2030. More than 80 percent of the announced projects plan the production of eMethanol. This is considered a platform fuel and can be used across all four mobility segments.
However, the financing of most projects is still pending. “Only six percent of the 300 projects have a final investment decision. The gap between supply and demand must be closed by reliable regulation. Whether eFuels can reach their full potential depends on the right political decisions," says Diemer.
The study names three levers: higher eFuel quotas with a long-term planning horizon, the reduction of regulatory hurdles in production standards and electricity procurement, as well as fiscal instruments such as a reform of the energy tax and strengthening of the EU Innovation Fund and the European Hydrogen Bank.
