The strategy consultancy EY-Parthenon, together with the PtX platform of the German Engineering Federation (VDMA), has published the "Power-to-X Barometer 2026." The 68-page study analyzes where Germany and Europe stand in international comparison and which factors shape the market ramp-up.
Market Cleans Up After Exaggerated Expectations
Between 2021 and 2023, according to the study, many project plans were based on optimistic assumptions: low electricity prices, high full-load hours, and fast approval processes. Reality has proven to be significantly more challenging. Electricity prices remained volatile, grid connections were delayed, and capital costs have risen. "We will see fewer, but more robust projects in Germany and Europe in the coming years," says Cornelius Knecht, Sector Lead Industrial Products Europe West at EY-Parthenon. Successful are primarily projects with clear approval and infrastructure perspectives as well as bankable off-take agreements.
Cluster Approaches and Hybrid Portfolios as Future Model
The analyses suggest that cluster-oriented approaches are likely to intensify – for example, around ports, chemical parks, and industrial centers where electricity, molecules, CO₂ logistics, and consumers come together. "Hybrid portfolios will become the norm," predicts Knecht: green hydrogen where renewable electricity is available in sufficient quantities and at competitive costs; blue hydrogen where CO₂ storage and gas supply can be reliably organized. "The core trend is clear: focus on viable business models instead of announcements," says Knecht.
Study Identifies Three Levers for Market Ramp-Up
"The market ramp-up of Power-to-X depends on investment security, demand, and implementation, not on technology," says Peter Müller-Baum, Managing Director VDMA Power-to-X for Applications. The study identifies three central levers: First, reliable revenue support, for example through Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD) or H2Global tenders, which create predictable cash flows. Second, a cross-border compatible certification system, so that buyers and investors can reliably assess climate impact and origin. Third, reliable infrastructure access – from grid connections to hydrogen pipelines to CO₂ transport and storage capacities.
