The TransHyDE project has published a comprehensive system analysis on the future hydrogen infrastructure in Europe. The 85-page study titled "European Hydrogen Infrastructure Planning: Latest Insights from TransHyDE System Analysis" examines how political decisions and economic conditions can influence the market ramp-up of hydrogen by 2050.
Key insight: A cost-efficient and robust hydrogen supply in Europe is possible—provided that political and economic actors act early and in a coordinated manner. "The future of hydrogen in Europe remains in our hands if we pull the levers by the end of the decade," says Mario Ragwitz, TransHyDE coordinator and head of the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Energy (IEG).
Industry as Main Driver—but with Uncertainties
In the long term, the largest demand for hydrogen is expected in the industry, particularly in the steel and chemical sectors. However, the actual development strongly depends on global competitive conditions, CO₂ prices, and the costs of green hydrogen. The study emphasizes that the range of possible scenarios is wide.
Renewable Energies as a Prerequisite for Domestic Production
According to the study, a rapid expansion of wind and solar energy is crucial to meet Europe's hydrogen demand from domestic production. If this expansion falls short of targets, both costs and import dependency will increase significantly.
Subsidy instruments also remain important: The transformation of energy-intensive industries requires CO₂ prices of over 200 euros per ton, according to the analysis. To make the ramp-up economically viable, the study recommends, among other things:
– a specific hydrogen segment in future climate protection contracts,
– a revision of the GHG reduction quota in transport with a sub-quota for RFNBOs (renewable fuels of non-biological origin),
– Contracts for Difference (CfDs) on the fuel side to hedge price risks,
– as well as the establishment of lead markets for climate-friendly basic materials.
Pipeline Imports More Economical than Derivatives
For hydrogen imports, the study identifies pipelines from North Africa or Southeast Europe as the most economical long-term solution. Derivatives such as ammonia or methanol are only sensible where direct use of hydrogen is not possible.
The repurposing of existing natural gas pipelines for hydrogen could save time and costs. However, early coordination at the European level is required to avoid false incentives and inefficient investments.
Four Key Factors for an Efficient System
The study identifies four central influencing factors for a functioning European hydrogen system:
1. Speed of renewable energy expansion,
2. International competition and development of global value chains,
3. Infrastructure decisions in the next five years (pipelines, storage, CO₂ network), and
4. Regulatory security of investments (CO₂ prices, subsidy instruments, import strategies).
Regional Differences and Risks
The analysis points to significant regional differences. Industrial regions with low own renewable energy production will be more reliant on imports. Wind-rich regions, on the other hand, could become H2 exporters. Without differentiated planning stranded assets—investments in infrastructures that later prove unprofitable—are at risk. Hydrogen policy must be thought through in a differentiated manner and closely linked to (regional) spatial planning.
"We have developed the technological foundations for the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy in Germany with TransHyDE," says Christoph Nolden, co-author of the study and head of the Competence Center "Natural Gas, Hydrogen, and Material Infrastructures" at Fraunhofer IEG. With the TransHyDE 2.0 initiative, economic applications and national value creation are now to be secured.
The full study is available on the project's website: www.wasserstoff-leitprojekte.de/leitprojekte/transhyde
