At the time of writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains barely passable, disrupting around 20 percent of global oil trade. The effects are immediately felt at fuel pumps, in heating costs, and across energy-intensive industries.
Since Europe has only about two percent of the world’s oil and gas reserves, we are extremely vulnerable to crises. This is nothing new – following the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war of aggression, the next shock has arrived within just a few years.
This illustrates the risks of waiting for a “smooth transition”: For energy-intensive companies, such a crisis means volatile commodity prices, rising transport costs and the threat of renewed inflation spikes. This also significantly influences investment decisions.
This is where an advantage opens up for hydrogen technologies: The more volatile and expensive fossil fuels become, the more attractive long-term supply contracts for renewable energy and hydrogen become, even if the entry price is higher. Companies are not only calculating the pure energy costs per megawatt hour but also the risks associated with fossil options. Green hydrogen scores with more stable costs, a greater number of potential supplier countries and even significant production within the EU.
Hydrogen becomes security-relevant
Planning the hydrogen network is therefore not only important for climate policy but also for security policy. In this regard, we are taking an important step these days: With the binding capacity reservation for the future German hydrogen core network (Wasserstoffkernnetz), planning is now becoming concrete; pipeline rights can be booked.
The development of hydrogen storage facilities, import infrastructure and decentralized production plants is now also becoming strategically relevant. NATO is examining scenarios for decentralized energy supply, for example at background meetings with H2 grid operators. Hydrogen and its derivatives are thus also gaining importance in hedging the risks of geopolitical supply disruptions.
The expansion of the hydrogen economy will not succeed on its own. The current crisis can serve as a catalyst. Equally, once prices fall again, we may revert to old patterns – as happened after the oil crises of the 1970s. Two aspects will be decisive:
• Whether industry uses the current willingness to change to secure capacities and long-term hydrogen supply contracts, rather than passively waiting for the next crisis.
• Whether policymakers can maintain the pace of current fast-track procedures and also commit to appropriate funding instruments.
The real lesson from current events: A secure and affordable fossil energy supply is likely a thing of the past. This offers the opportunity for a proactive transformation instead of merely reacting to crises time and again. Green hydrogen is no panacea, but it can effectively link the challenges of energy security, climate protection and industrial competitiveness.
