The Northern German Living Lab (Norddeutsches Reallabor, short: NRL) has published initial results from its social science analysis on the market ramp-up of green hydrogen. The study, titled "Hydrogen in Industry: Between Breakthrough and Blockade," is based on the so-called Transformation Labs, which took place in 2024 in Hamburg. Representatives from industry, energy sector, administration, science, and civil society discussed obstacles and drivers of hydrogen use in industrial processes there.
Key finding of the study: The ramp-up of green hydrogen is hindered by a complex cycle of obstacles. Lack of economic viability, unclear regulatory guidelines, and insufficient infrastructure are interdependent and hinder investments. The analysis was conducted by the Competence Center for Energy Transition (CC4E) at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences.
"The energy transition is more than a technological transformation," says Simon Güntner, Professor of Social Sciences and scientific director of the author team. "Only if the perspectives, interests, and expectations of very different stakeholders are incorporated early on can the market ramp-up of essential technologies succeed."
A central problem from the participants' perspective is the uncertainty in the implementation of the EU directives RED II and RED III. This leads to investment barriers, as business models and economic viability are not plannable. Other hurdles include lengthy approval procedures, high electricity prices, and lack of import and storage infrastructure. Uniform approval processes, lower electricity costs, and stronger societal acceptance were mentioned as beneficial for the ramp-up.
Scenario Analysis Shows Only One Viable Path
The study includes a scenario analysis based on the discussions of the Transformation Labs. Only one scenario was identified that could lead to a successful market ramp-up. This requires a coordinated interplay of regulation, funding, infrastructure, and communication. The analysis shows that many factors are interdependent. For example, lack of infrastructure prevents investments, while investments are a prerequisite for infrastructure expansion. Funding programs can only be effective if approval procedures are more efficient and the shortage of skilled workers is addressed.
Recommendations for Action for Politics and Administration
The study authors formulate several recommendations to accelerate the market ramp-up:
- Approval procedures should be accelerated through uniform guidelines and better exchange between authorities. Economic viability can be improved through lower operating costs, for example, via an electricity price bridge.
- The expansion of import terminals, storage, and transport networks must occur early and be coordinated with industrial transformation processes.
- Transparent communication and greater involvement of citizens and municipalities can increase societal acceptance.
- The study makes it clear: Individual measures are not enough. The market ramp-up of green hydrogen requires a coordinated approach across all relevant fields of action.
