DNV, an independent assurance and risk management provider, has published its "Energy Transition Outlook Hydrogen to 2060." According to this, the volume of clean hydrogen will grow a hundredfold by 2060. The total volume of all types of hydrogen is expected to increase by 170 percent. DNV estimates cumulative investments by 2060 at 3.2 trillion US dollars.
The strongest demand for clean hydrogen is expected by DNV by 2060 in new application fields: steel production (18 percent), aviation (18 percent), and shipping (15 percent). Established consumers such as fertilizer and methanol production are expected to account for around 13 percent each.
Forecast reduced by 35 percent
Compared to its previous study from 2022, DNV has reduced the outlook for mid-century by 35 percent. The main reason cited by the company is the lack of political support. Early ambitions have not translated into large-scale projects. Additionally, advances in direct electrification have reduced the role of hydrogen in some sectors.
“The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, but it is a fragile stance. Hydrogen completes the most difficult aspects of the decarbonization drive that so many nations have committed to. In driving fossil dependency out of critical sectors, hydrogen also contributes meaningfully to energy security,” says Ditlev Engel, CEO Energy Systems at DNV. Policymakers must carefully review the practical progress made so far and act decisively.
China to become dominant producer according to DNV
Half of the newly installed electrolysis capacities based on renewable energies by 2030 are expected to be in Europe and China, according to DNV. China already has 60 percent of the world's electrolyzer manufacturing capacity. Combined with its expansion of solar and wind power, the country will become the dominant global producer of renewable hydrogen.
Energy security is likely to emerge as a decisive factor for investments and political measures in the hydrogen sector. By 2030, an additional 10 megatons per year of electrolysis capacity is expected to be added to the 1.5 megatons per year installed in 2025. The geopolitical situation accelerates final investment decisions, according to DNV. Instability in the Middle East is also likely to support coal-based hydrogen production for ammonia and fertilizers in the medium term to maintain food security.
Safety and certification as prerequisites
DNV also warns that growth depends on closing a trust gap regarding safety and credibly documenting emission reductions. Insights from pilot projects are flowing into the development of industrial-scale plants and corresponding processes, but scaling is not simply a matter of "copy-and-paste" regarding cost or safety assumptions. To build trust and mobilize extensive investment funds, stronger standardization and holistic approaches to safety, verification, and certification are required.
“Going forward, it is about fine-tuning the regulations, implementing these in legislation, and verifying safety concepts, documenting technical performance, and certifying emission reductions,” says Magnus Killingland, Global Segment Lead Hydrogen at DNV. This way, renewable and low-carbon hydrogen can make a difference in sectors that are difficult to electrify.
DNV
