The concept of the Gartner Hype Cycle originates from the consulting firm Gartner. It describes the development of innovative technologies in a graphical form. From the initial trigger to large-scale application, the introduction of new technologies is divided into five phases. Nurettin Tekin has applied these to hydrogen.
Technology trigger: The hype begins with a technical innovation and initial pilot projects. Tekin places these in the hydrogen landscape in the years 2018/2019. Interest continues to grow. This is followed in Germany by real-world laboratory projects, the National Hydrogen Strategy, and at the European level, the IPCEI projects (Important Project of Common European Interest). Public interest in hydrogen increases. In this phase, there are typically no ready-to-use products, and it is unclear whether the technology will be economically viable.
Peak of inflated expectations: The first successes lead to rising expectations - and inevitably to the failure of various projects. Tekin dates this peak to the year 2023.
Trough of disillusionment: When the first pilot projects do not meet the high expectations, public interest declines again. A number of companies withdraw or fail. Those who remain in the market must significantly further develop their products and adapt them to the demands of early adopters. The declining interest reaches its low point in the trough of disillusionment, which Tekin dates to 2026.
Slope of enlightenment: The further developed technology spreads. In the second and third generation, products become more marketable. More companies enter pilot projects, while others remain cautious. Tekin predicts this rise for the coming years. He names the infrastructure around the core network, hydrogen power plants, carbon capture and storage, and various political regulations that are expected to take effect in the coming years as key technologies in this phase.
Plateau of productivity: On the plateau of productivity, a new technology becomes mainstream and spreads beyond niches. Tekin sees this moment arriving when the infrastructure in the form of the core network is established in the early 2030s.
