Every period of time has its sentences that kind of become a mantra. The ones you instinctively reach for when you want to explain something fundamental. “The technology is ready” is one of them these days.
We could have opened practically every article in this issue with that line. We didn’t, because we figure you already know. Instead, we get concrete. The hydrogen sector is producing more and more products and systems, and they are growing increasingly sophisticated. From digital plant models to materials to machines for cell manufacturing, it’s all there. Thousands of engineers have done their homework, and an industrial ecosystem is emerging.
Now all these fine products need to find their market, and that’s the hard part. In most applications, hydrogen technologies are still far from selling themselves. The call for lead markets is getting louder. And the sector rightly highlights the advantages of hydrogen: its storage capability, the option of transporting it affordably through gas pipelines, its flexible range of uses, and its contribution to resilience. Certain numbers keep making the rounds, too, like the estimated nearly 9 terawatt-hours of curtailed renewable electricity in Germany in 2025.
All of this is true. But these are individual talking points. What’s missing is the full picture.
Having covered energy transition topics for more than 20 years, I can say: among the “electricity crowd,” this topic gets way more attention. One scenario analysis follows the next. Some focus on spatial distribution, others on temporal resolution, others on macroeconomics. You can support any of them, poke holes in them, or both, but together they move toward a systemic understanding.
Now comes the part that will probably not make me popular: in the hydrogen sector, I see very little of that. Take the demand to harness those nearly 9 terawatt-hours of curtailed renewable electricity. These surpluses occur in peaks, scattered across a handful of specific locations. Where exactly are those locations? How much of that electricity could realistically feed electrolyzers at decent full-load hours? What kind of support scheme would be needed, and would it actually save money compared to the compensation payments made today? And finally: how long will this surplus electricity even be around? At some point, the long-planned transmission lines to Bavaria will get built, just as Berlin Brandenburg Airport and the Elbphilharmonie concert hall in Hamburg eventually did.
The technology is ready, but that’s not enough. When it comes to making the case, the hydrogen sector could learn a thing or two from the “electricity crowd.”
