Interview with stock market pundit Dirk Müller
For months now, hydrogen has been dominating the conversation. But far from it being a topic of discussion confined to the energy sector, it’s also a subject on the lips of many stockholders. Internet platforms have been brimming over with posts: a cacophony of news, views, speculation and rumor. And an increasing number of providers are luring potential clients with – sometimes dubious – market studies supposedly offering fresh insider intelligence with the promise of maximum stock returns. One of the best-known stock market experts in Germany is Dirk Müller – otherwise known as Mr. Dax. Many years back he predicted that hydrogen would have a major role to play not just in the energy industry but also on the stock markets. H2-international talked to Müller about his experiences, expectations and share trading strategy.
H2-international: Mr. Müller, for you this run on hydrogen stocks has not come as a surprise. Back in 2018 you described the potential of this technology in your book “Machtbeben” [rough translation: Power Shake-Up]. When did you start following the hydrogen sector?
Müller: I’ve actually been following it for over 10 years now. Ballard Power was already in existence back then as well as quite a few other companies that were early adopters of hydrogen. But they were pretty far ahead of their time. It was still very much a niche area, yet it was already possible to see that it would become a big deal one day. We always try to keep an eye on things in the early stages and not when they are front page news. I think at Cashkurs*Trends, our stock market service for tech companies, we flagged up hydrogen 10 years ago, but of course it’s only now that things are really getting interesting.
H2-international: At what point did you become aware of hydrogen’s potential?
It was the moment when it actually became clear that we were going to be relying more on renewable energy, and the decision was made to move away from oil – when this issue of carbon dioxide became a massive talking point, so five or six years ago. It was obvious to me that with renewables there would also be a need for a storage technology, and that could only be hydrogen. It was clear that there’d also be increasing impetus in the hydrogen sector, although hydrogen is such an immense deal that, first of all, the players position themselves and try to do as much as possible under the radar before it triggers any major change.
H2-international: And what in the past few months has demonstrated to you that this is not just some new short-lived hype but that this is something big that’s come along, something that’s here to stay?
For me it all became very clear when I saw the ferocity of the political struggle over gas reserves around the world, Qatar being a case in point. For the past few years, no damn person has had any interest in oil, to put it bluntly. Natural gas, on the other hand, has always been a major battleground. It’ll play a really, really big role for a long time to come, and, like it or not, hydrogen and natural gas are very closely interwoven. Green gas and green energy will be put at the forefront, and until at least 2050 most of the hydrogen will be produced – in my view – from fossil fuels and not from renewables. Although, of course, they’re a nice fig leaf. While the emphasis will move increasingly in favor of green hydrogen over the coming decades, the transitional technology to reach that goal is gas.
… Read more in the latest H2-International e-Journal, May 2021