A bumpy ride

Weichai Truck - Ballard
© Ballard

The highs and lows of hydrogen and fuel cell stocks in recent weeks can be best described as a bumpy ride following a significant and rapid increase in prices. It seems to me that the market has entered a major consolidation phase. Yet this is no reason to lose faith, especially as the wild fluctuations that have been raging since early December 2020 – with some stocks climbing more than 50 percent inside a month – begged a correction. A process which is now in full swing. At the end of the day, it’s the future of the industry that counts and so here I stand by the old stock market maxim: The trend is your friend.

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FuelCell Energy – business valued too high

There has been a stark rise in the valuation of the business from around USD 100 million to now over USD 9 billion, with the stock price increasing from USD 1 – USD 2 to USD 29. I would go so far as to call it totally excessive. I got early wind of FuelCell Energy [Nasdaq: FCEL] as a turnaround after a management consultancy had “cleaned it up” and after the company had undergone a period of refinancing and restructuring and happily onboarded Orion Energy Partners as a key investor.

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Nikola Motors – uncertainty is waning

There are two sides to every story. And that’s very much the case with the planned cooperation with General Motors, GM, and the cancellation of 2,500 battery electric refuse trucks for Republic Services which turned out to be rather fortuitous in retrospect. In the GM scenario, Nikola would itself have had to spend over USD 700 million on tools, among other things. The participation of GM with USD 2 billion as a “valuable consideration” would have resulted in a dilution of the number of issued stocks.

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Plug Power – positioning under way but analysts disunited

Plug Power [Nasdaq: PLUG] has undergone one financing round after another, with a third bought deal sandwiched in between, this time to the tune of more than USD 1.7 billion. What’s more, the South Korean SK Group has promised to put up USD 1.6 billion in return for a 9.9 percent ownership stake in the company, an investment that will also form a basis for a joint venture between the two corporations. And if that’s not enough, Plug, which is headquartered in the U.S., intends to fit out delivery vehicles for France’s Renault Group. Plus, the company has been busy buying in top talent for its management team. That’s the good news.

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Weichai Power – China’s largest diesel engine manufacturer on the fuel cell highway

The company Weichai Power, which I’ve so far only mentioned in this column as partnering Ballard, has a revenue around the EUR 20 billion mark and a stock market valuation of the same order. In 2020, a good EUR 1 billion was marked up as profit, with dividends also paid out. Weichai Power has several bus brands to its name and is the nation’s largest diesel engine manufacturer; it has clearly recognized the potential offered by fuel cells in the commercial vehicle sector and, in its own words, is intent on becoming the market leader.

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Tesla in grip of Bitcoin fever

That Tesla chief Elon Musk would, one way or another, place his trust in Bitcoin was to be expected. He had already stated his interest and his enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency many times in the past and had previously considered switching the whole of his corporate financing to this digital money format. Words turned to action, with Tesla investing USD 1.5 billion in bitcoins.

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The industrial sector hits on hydrogen

Digital Handelsblatt Energy Summit 2021

Hildegard Müller - VDA
© VDA

Global energy trends are clearly moving in the direction of hydrogen – and away from fossil fuels. That’s the conclusion that can be drawn from the three-day digital energy summit staged by German business paper Handelsblatt which ran from Jan. 13 to Jan. 15, 2021. The energy sector as a whole faces enormous challenges as it continues along the path of decarbonization. Coal will be exhausted and demand for oil, too, will gradually decline in favor of hydrogen – with green hydrogen a credible prospect in the longer term given its renewable credentials. Natural gas must also become cleaner, though carbon capture and storage, CCS, remains a divisive issue. “Turquoise” hydrogen, meanwhile, can be viewed as a sensible option for applications associated with the production of green steel. No mention was made of yellow hydrogen produced from biogas, and was addressed instead in terms of hydrogen created using nuclear power.

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Plug Power – Seize the day

Gendrive-Modules
Gendrive Modules ©PlugPower

That was fast. First, Plug Power [Nasdaq: PLUG] raises around USD 840 million issuing new shares at USD 22.25 apiece. A felt five minutes later, the company is offered a USD 1 billion bought deal, perfectly exploiting the stock surge to collect massive capital. Plug must now have over USD 1.7 billion in the bank, thanks to the company’s growth prospects targeting hydrogen.

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Tesla joins S&P 500

Graphic representation of Tesla's stock index
© www.finanzen.net

It may seem contradictory, since joining an important market index is a very good thing, requiring funds to adjust their holdings. In Tesla’s case, I see at least USD 8 billion would have to be invested through them. I tend to doubt this will automatically lead to a massive increase in valuation. Index funds may already have positions based on a variety of investment vehicles, such as options that can be turned into shares without any relevant influence on the price. Perhaps out of pure contrariness, the stock could turn sour when things are looking their best because analysts, investors and the media see only rising prices, completely ignoring the risks.

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FuelCell Energy – High-frequency trading prompts stock surge

FuelCell Energy’s quarterly results weren’t the reason for the year-end price surge from around USD 2 to over USD 11. At times, more than 200 million trades were concluded in one day, which exceeds the total shares outstanding. I believe we’re witnessing the impact of high-frequency or day trades or swarm-like investor activity via, e.g., Robinhood. Right before the rally, Heights Capital Management reported the purchase of 19 million FuelCell shares, giving the private equity firm a 6.7 percent stake in the fuel cell business.

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