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Possible routes for hydrogen ramp-up

Possible routes for hydrogen ramp-up

The looming climate crisis and the inadequate diversification regarding energy source countries made visible by the Russian aggression in Ukraine is evidence that more speed is needed in the energy transition. Hydrogen will play an important role in the energy systems of the future. Due to this time pressure, the German government has taken on the responsibility of making the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy more efficient. But how exactly is this to be achieved? What options are available for carrying out this task, and what advantages and disadvantages are associated with them? Which actions need to be taken, and when, to enable the ramp-up, while avoiding unwanted path dependencies?

These are the questions that Acatech (Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften eV) and DECHEMA (Gesellschaft für Chemische Technik und Biotechnologie eV) have been investigating as part of the two-year project H2-Kompass (Wasserstoff-Kompass) since June 2021. The central product of this project will be an orientation tool of the same name, available starting from the second quarter of 2023. This market-oriented, data- and fact-based tool can be used by policymakers to further develop a national hydrogen roadmap. This is what the German national hydrogen strategy of 2020 envisages. The project is being funded by the German ministry for education and research (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF) as well as the ministry for economy and climate protection (Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz, BMWK).

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The basis of Kompass is, on the one hand, a meta-analysis. It evaluates relevant studies and strategy papers for Germany, the EU and other important countries around the world, and provides an overview of the current and future hydrogen quantities and requirements. This quantity structure and related technological issues are being verified and debated in a multitude of expert discussions.

Secondly, Kompass incorporates the results of a broad-based stakeholder dialogue that lasted around twelve months. This was conducted with people from academia, commerce, public service and community development to obtain their views and to work towards a common vision of a German hydrogen economy. This comprehensive stakeholder dialogue makes H2-Kompass a unique feature in the H2 project landscape.

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Bearings for policymakers

A look into the year 2045: A bus is on a newly paved road taking passengers to the next city in the district. But what is the road surface made of? When an asphalt road is built or repaved today, bitumen is used as a binder. This dark, sticky hydrocarbon mixture is produced in today’s refineries as a byproduct during the processing of crude oil. When refineries no longer process fossil resources in the future, this byproduct will in all likelihood no longer be produced. Also other classic byproducts, such as sulfur or lubricating oils, refined to their corresponding qualities, are missing in a refinery converted to instead process hydrogen derivatives, and would have to be obtained in future via other process routes or from other sources.

This example shows that the potential use of hydrogen is associated with many overarching consequences along the entire value chain, which include, among other things, a need for policy changes regarding industry and labor markets as well as for security of supply and social acceptance. At the beginning of the market ramp-up will be many possibilities and challenges. Here, H2-Kompass is to provide orientation, specifically through simultaneous consideration of multiple fields of action: production and import, infrastructure, steel industry, chemical industry, refineries, other industries, transport, power generation, and building and process heat.

Wasserstoff-Dialog conference in autumn 2022

The conference Wasserstoff-Dialog from October 10th to 12th, 2022 brought 370 stakeholders from the hydrogen community together in Berlin. Co-organizer of the conference was the research alliance Forschungsnetzwerk Wasserstoff, which held a meeting during the first part of the conference. The joint part midway through the conference culminated in a top-class panel on the topic “Deutschlands Wasserstoffwirtschaft Einblicke in politische und industrielle Herausforderungen” (Germany’s hydrogen economy – insights into political and industrial challenges). Among others were BMWK parliamentary secretary Stefan Wenzel and BMBF innovation officer for green hydrogen Till Mansmann. Subsequently, the H2-Kompass used formats such as a poster exhibition und world cafés to obtain feedback from the participants on the results produced so far.

Defining targets for the hydrogen ramp-up

The stakeholder dialog component of the project started in autumn 2021 with the survey “Ziele und Wege zur Wasserstoffwirtschaft 2030/2050” (goals and paths to a hydrogen economy by year 2030/2050). Participating were around 600 people from academia, commerce, community development and public service. From April to September 2022, H2-Kompass organized four workshops with the topics 1) import criteria, 2) policies to enable success of business models reliant on domestic hydrogen production, 3) prioritizing the uses of hydrogen and 4) perception and expectation management. The propositions produced in the workshops were discussed by a wider stakeholder circle during the three-day Wasserstoff-Dialog conference in October 2022 in Berlin. The results from the stakeholder dialog were worked into the end product, that is, the H2-Kompass. A synthesis paper in the first quarter of 2023 will summarize the key discussion points.

Meta-analysis compiles time-dependent quantity structure

H2-Kompass continuously collects strategy papers, and studies and analyzes them, and evaluates and verifies them through discussions with experts. Based on this, a time-dependent quantity structure is being creating from hydrogen supply and demand in the individual sectors, taking into account the necessary infrastructures for transport, storage and distribution. Furthermore, H2-Kompass maintains a project database to keep track of the generation capacities in Germany.

Publications based on the meta-analysis conducted by H2-Kompass

In the course of the project, H2-Kompass has so far published analyses on the following topics:

  • Comparison of the hydrogen ramp-up strategies of the different German states
  • ·         Fact Sheet Wasserstoff im Wärmesektor (hydrogen in the heating sector)
  • International ship transport: climate-neutral drive systems and fuels
  • Climate neutrality in air transport
  • Hydrogen in the transportation sector
  • Fact Sheet Wasserstoff in der Stahlindustrie (hydrogen in the steel industry)
  • Raw materials for the production of electrolyzers
  • Electrolyzer capacities

Until the end of the project, analyses will follow on hydrogen in the electricity sector, hydrogen in other industrial sectors – such as cement, lime, glass and paper, – hydrogen use in refineries and the chemical industry, and on the infrastructure requirements of hydrogen ramp-up.

References:

BMWi: Die Nationale Wasserstoffstrategie. 2020.

https://www.bmbf.de/bmbf/shareddocs/downloads/files/die-nationale-wasserstoffstrategie.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=1

acatech, DECHEMA: Auf dem Weg in die deutsche Wasserstoffwirtschaft: Resultate der Stakeholder*innen-Befragung. 2021. https://www.wasserstoff-kompass.de/fileadmin/user_upload/img/news-und-media/dokumente/wasserstoffwirtschaft-2030-2050/Umfragebericht_Langversion.pdf

acatech, DECHEMA: Kapazitäten der Elektrolyse. 2022. https://www.wasserstoff-kompass.de/news-media/dokumente/erzeugungskapazitaeten

Author:
Alena Müller, Stakeholder-Referentin im Wasserstoff-Kompass, acatech
mueller@acatech.de

Image: World café “Priorisierung von Wasserstoff-Anwendungen” (prioritizing the uses of hydrogen) during the conference Wasserstoff-Dialog
Source: Svea Pietschmann, acatech

The greenest industrial region in Europe

The greenest industrial region in Europe

Duisburg, being located on the rivers Rhine and Ruhr, is an excellent site for transport activities. Duisburger Hafen, the largest inland port in the world, is one of the most important shipping hubs globally. Settled in Duisburg are, among others, the major research institutes Fraunhofer IMS (Fraunhofer institute for microelectronics) and the ZBT (Duisburg fuel cell technology center). At the same time, the industrial activities there steel production, coal-based power production, port operation – are one of the city’s largest sources of CO2 emissions. ThyssenKrupp Steel Duisburg alone accounts for 2.5% of the CO2 emissions in Germany. An excellent place to start actively driving forward processes for the already necessary transformation of the industrial and transportation sectors toward a hydrogen economy and, with that, shape a renewed economic restructuring of the region.

Duisburg is located in the Ruhr area, which consists of eleven district-free cities and four districts. In the region called the Metropole Ruhr live 5.1 million people – of which 0.5 million reside in Duisburg (status on 2020/06/30). The Ruhr area is the largest polycentric metropolitan area as well as one of the largest urban areas and, with 31,000 workers, the largest steel site in the European Union. Each municipality and each district has developed its own field of expertise and industry concentration. Duisburg’s specializations, for example, lay in metal production and metalworking, warehousing and shipping services as well as the energy industry and maritime transport.

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Green transformation

Germany’s energy transition and phasing out of hard coal represent a challenge for all municipalities and districts in the Ruhr area. Its economic restructuring into a service and knowledge location is in full swing. Throughout the Ruhr area, an increase in activities regarding digitalization, energy, sustainability and circular economy is taking place. How is Duisburg handling this climate and structural change?

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Already in 2001, the ZBT in Duisburg – Zentrum für BrennstoffzellenTechnik GmbH – was founded. It was to be a nucleus that supported the needed transformation in the Ruhr area, in particular that involving fuel cell and hydrogen technology. The ZBT is an application-oriented research and development institute for fuel cells and hydrogen and battery technology with global renown. Its focus lies in meeting the needs of industry as an independent service and R&D partner. Currently, 150 full-time employees and about 25 student employees work there.

With numerous projects already early on, the ZBT was able to collect experience in hydrogen and fuel cell technology and to help in its development. Production processes for a mass market were created and, in the first independent testing lab at the time, standards for fuel cell systems were set.

With the hydrogen test field at the ZBT that went into operation in 2018, a research and development platform for high-pressure H2 applications was established, which today represents the decisive testing platform in various European projects.

H2 in steelworking

Because of the Paris Climate Accord and national provisions regarding greenhouse gas emissions, hydrogen is gaining momentum throughout the European Union. With this in view, Thyssenkrupp Steel in Duisburg has decided to invest in climate-friendly technology. The company’s blast furnace process is to be partially replaced by a hydrogen-powered direct reduction system of pig iron production within the next few years. The goal is to produce premium steel with low CO2 emission.

The planned direct reduction furnace is conceived for 2.5 million tonnes of crude iron and should avoid 3.5 million tonnes of CO2, as the CO2 emission in this first production step is to sink by about 20%. The total investment is 2 billion euros. A corresponding IPCEI project application has been submitted. As soon as the commitment from the EU comes, the building contract can be awarded and construction of the direct reduction furnace can begin. The expected start of production is currently in 2026.

Duisburger Hafen as well, the largest inland port in the world, is obligated, by internal regulations, to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. As part of the project EnerPort I, it has been investigating which approach should be taken to support the energy transformation process. Using the example of Duisburger Hafen, a strategy is to be developed based on data collection, concept selection, formation of scenarios and, finally, optimization of energy infrastructure and operations. This project will be completed shortly and has already spurred a subsequent project, started in 2021, to implement the results.

In the project EnerPort II, the worked out fundamentals are to be implemented and tested in a pilot project that involves construction of the trimodal Duisburg Gateway Terminal (DGT) in Duisburger Hafen. At the terminal, a sustainable energy system would be installed that is designed as a smart microgrid. Renewable energy production, storage and consumption would be coupled and optimally driven, and adjacent neighborhoods and city districts could be supplied through this.

Activities of this sort are bringing international companies as well to settle in Duisburg. Most recently, the US fuel cell manufacturer Plug Power Inc. opened its European service and logistics center in Duisburger Hafen (see H2-international May 2022).

TrHy – “The Hydrogen Proving Area”

TrHy came into being as an ITZ center (Technologie- und Innovationszentrum Wasserstoff) for the western area of Germany through a national competition. It is one of four ITZ centers throughout the country, which are dedicated to hydrogen innovation. Through TrHy, located on the grounds of the steel and power producer Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann in the south of Duisburg, the entire spectrum of innovation development, knowledge transfer, standardization, certification and testing of fuel cell-based drive systems for the heavy transport sector is to be covered, thus giving Duisburg a national center for hydrogen-based mobility across various transport modes.

The plan is to coordinate the activities in the field of standardization and to be available as an independent testing institute to market partners. For this, the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) and the federal government have allocated up to 122 million euros of funding. Investigation of the feasibility of such an institute was carried out and confirmed. Wide support from the industry was obtained in the form of documents and assurances beforehand. With the laboratory and testing capabilities that are to be set up, an essential gap in the successful establishment of hydrogen-based transportation will be filled. For the research and development, a large network of partners throughout NRW, as satellites of TrHy, stand available.

H2 industrial park

The city of Duisburg itself must also be active in order to comply with regulations and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Over the next few years, it will be investing heavily in the expansion of climate-friendly transportation. The provisions of the EU’s Clean Vehicle Directive (CVD) were transferred into German law as the Saubere-Fahrzeuge-Beschaffungs-Gesetz (SaubFahrzeugBeschG) by policymakers in 2021. In response, the public transit provider Duisburger Verkehrsgesellschaft AG (DVG) acquired seven battery-electric buses, which have been in use in the Duisburg urban area since March 2022. In May 2022, the city council made the decision to procure ten H2-powered buses by 2026. At the end of November, it was decided to purchase a further 100 units by 2030.

The company for municipal operations, Wirtschaftsbetriebe Duisburg (WBD), has also committed to fuel cell drives. In 2021, the nation’s first hydrogen-powered trash collection vehicle went into service – another in October 2022 – and five units are yet to be delivered.

With this, Duisburg is well on its way to claiming the title of “hydrogen capital” for itself, since the H2 demand at this time is the greatest in Duisburg and its state of NRW. The steel and shipping industries are counting on hydrogen to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which is creating the ideal conditions for establishment of a sustainable H2 economy. The following map offers an overview of the hydrogen activities in the Duisburg urban area.

Cooperations and networks

To participants, it is clear that the market ramp-up of the hydrogen economy can only happen if they work together. Duisburger Hafen (DuisPort) is cooperating with Dutch seaports to study the potentials of various H2 carrier technologies and to establish an international supply chain for hydrogen. In addition, there is the RH2INE (Rhine Hydrogen Integration Network of Excellence), which is an initiative of the Dutch province Zuid-Holland and the German state Nordrhein-Westfalen, in cooperation with the ports of Rotterdam and Duisburg and the company RheinCargo, founded with the goal of creating a climate-neutral transport corridor in the Rhine-Alpine area (Transportkorridor Rhein-Alpen) and advancing the use of hydrogen in freight transport.

Furthermore, in 2020, the region DüsselRheinWupper, which includes Duisburg, won the NRW competition to become a model region for hydrogen transportation (Modellregion Wasserstoffmobilität NRW). Consequently, the initial concepts for a complete hydrogen-based transportation system in the region were worked out and the fundamentals for an implementation in Duisburg were drawn up.

Duisburg is also actively participating in the project HyMR (Hydrogen Metropole Ruhr) of the regional land use association Regionalverband Ruhr. Within this network, the various regional initiatives exchange information in order to jointly move the region forward in the field of hydrogen through synergy effects.

With the association Hy.Region.Rhein.Ruhr eV, founded in 2021 in Duisburg and in which 40 companies and scientific institutions are now active, a strong network of industry partners stand available in the fields of hydrogen production, distribution and use in the industrial and transportation sectors. The stated objective of Hy.Region.Rhein.Ruhr is to promote the implementation of a cross-sector hydrogen economy. For this purpose, the members want to actively work together and carry out projects in the Rhine-Ruhr region.

H2 education center

A green transformation only works, however, if it is accompanied by a social transformation. Employees who are being affected by this need precisely tailored continuing education and retraining measures – this ranges from skilled and technical trades to a strong academic environment in the relevant key technologies. Such measures give employees a hopeful future, not only for themselves, but for a healthy overall social and societal fabric.

This cannot be accomplished by the companies alone, however. That’s why the City of Duisburg together with strong partners from the region is planning the construction of an H2 education center, to be able to offer a wide range of continuing education and retraining services for the region and its companies. By the signing of a letter of intent between the City of Duisburg, DuisPort, KWS Energy Knowledge eG and the ZBT, it was decided that a hydrogen training center would be set up in Duisburg. The corresponding project applications for a systematic analysis of the qualification needs of the different professional groups as well as a system to recognize the skills that they acquire have already been prepared and will be sent off with the support of the various industry partners.

Authors:
Matthias Heina, hydrogen coordinator for the City of Duisburg
j.jungsbluth@zbt.de

Image: ZBT, Duisburg
Image:

Fig. 4: Hydrogen activities in Duisburg – with no claim of completeness

H2Aktivitaeten-Duisburg_Landkarte_2022-11-30_B_(c)_Stadt_Duisburg.jpg

Image: Thyssenkrupp Stahlwerk Schwelgern
Source: City of Duisburg

Climate-neutral neighborhoods with PV and electrolysis systems

Climate-neutral neighborhoods with PV and electrolysis systems

In the research project H2-Quartiere, the consultancy Steinbeis-Innovationszentrum Energieplus (here abbreviated SIZ E+) is investigating until 2024 how decentralized hydrogen production near to consumers through electrolysis (ELY) can be implemented. On behalf of the German ministry for economy and climate protection, six model districts equipped with ELY systems in urban and suburban areas of Baden-Württemberg will be analyzed and checked to see if there are technical-economic hurdles. The results will be presented in a market analysis for electrolyzers.

This study is based on 23 interviews with operators and manufacturers, with the analysis of the manufacturer market limited to companies that have a branch in Germany. For manufacturers without a branch in Germany, the rapid availability of service personnel in case of repairs or maintenance would be called into question. The results of this market analysis provide an insight into the current situation with regard to investment costs (CapEx), efficiencies and stack temperatures as well as challenges for operators in the distribution of green hydrogen.

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Consideration of the operator side

In Germany, there are currently 13 publicly known electrolysis plants with a power consumption of more than 1 MW in operation (status in 2022, see Fig. 1). Together, these plants have an ELY capacity of around 70 MW. Out of seven interviewed operators of large ELY plants, two complained about the lack of standardization in the stack market. When replacing a stack, it would be advantageous to not be reliant on the same manufacturer that produced the first, it was said. One operator also expressed concern regarding non-European producers when it comes to rapid availability of service technicians in the event of a malfunction.

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With regard to the politically envisaged scale-up, five out of seven operators noted that there are not enough customers or demand for green hydrogen to make further investments worthwhile. This is also demonstrated in the ways that green hydrogen has been utilized up to now. So far, six out of 13 large-scale electrolysis plants have fed their hydrogen into the natural gas grid. Only six supply hydrogen to the industrial and one exclusively to the mobility sector. For the benefit of the national economy and the environment, green hydrogen should be used primarily in industrial processes that are otherwise difficult to decarbonize [Agora Energiewende, 2021].

The experience of one plant operator was marked by various challenges. The construction process was delayed in particular due to delivery problems and poor performance by individual construction companies. The putting into operation and the approval process were made disproportionately difficult by additional safety requirements imposed by the responsible regional council. The operation after completion was burdened by sharply rising, volatile electricity prices. Despite these difficulties, the operator is planning to erect another, even larger, ELY plant. The company believes that the long-term ecological and economic potential of green hydrogen will prevail over the medium-term disadvantages.

Consideration of the manufacturer side

The investment costs (CapEx) of hydrogen-producing electrolyzers, regardless of process type, is about 1,000 €/kWel for a large plant. Comparison, however, is sometimes difficult, as not all producers offer the same scope with regard to supportive and auxiliary equipment (balance of power, BoP). The players surveyed are planning expansion with increasingly automated production lines, which could significantly reduce CapEx. For PEM electrolyzers, the share of BoP in the cost lay at 55 percent in 2020 [IRENA, 2020]. Since then, the market volume has increased. However, it can be assumed that here too considerable cost reductions will follow effective scaling.

Figure 2 shows the energy conversion efficiency (LHV to AC = lower H2 heating value to alternating current) of the total of 17 electrolyzers from nine different manufacturers, anonymized and sorted according to electrolysis process. These are alkaline electrolyzers (AEL) in addition to proton-exchange membrane (PEM) and anion-exchange membrane (AEM) electrolyzers. Only makes from manufacturers who are based in Germany and already have customer references are considered. Solid oxide electrolyzers (SOEL), because of the heat demanded by the process to achieve the high operating temperature, are not considered here.

Shown for each electrolysis process are the minimum, mean and maximum values from the manufacturer’s data. Regardless of process type, they vary little between the examined products, with AEL showing slightly higher values. However, the comparability of the manufacturers’ data is a question. Currently, there are no norms or policies to define a standard that indicates under which comparable conditions the efficiency should be determined.

It is striking that some manufacturers state the same system efficiency for makes of different sizes. This indicates that the power consumption of the BoP is only roughly accounted for. In the case of some data, it is unclear whether the specification of the efficiency is a snapshot of the “beginning of life” or an average over the whole lifetime. Furthermore, there is often no information about the load condition at which the efficiency was measured.

Through waste heat recovery, a significant increase in total system efficiency can be achieved. An important factor here is the temperature level of the waste heat source. Figure 3 shows the specifications of nine manufacturers with regard to the stack temperature during operation under nominal load. The stack temperature is the temperature of the cooling medium midway between the inlet and outlet from the stack.

The stack cooling is usually divided into two circuits via a heat exchanger: a primary circuit for direct stack cooling and a secondary glycol circuit for heat dissipation to the environment, for example via package crossflow cooling towers.

Regardless of process type, the difference between the stack entry and exit temperature is usually not significantly more than 10 Kelvin, as higher spans can lead to higher degradation and inhomogeneous load conditions in the stack [TU Delft, 2019]. The primary cooling circuit, because of the special demands on the cooling medium imposed by direct contact with the cells, is usually separated from the glycol circuit via a heat exchanger. For proper hydraulic separation, another heat exchanger may be required in the secondary glycol circuit for waste heat extraction. If a temperature difference of, for example, 10 K is the target, then the return flow temperature from the waste heat utilizer must be between 15 and 20 K below the stack temperatures in Figure 3.

In light of this, all current products, in combination with a peak demand power station via a local heating network, are suitable for supplying an existing or new building area with heating energy. The temperature of most AELs, at an average of 76 °C, is theoretically high enough to enable the supply of hot tap water where appropriate. In practice, however, there are hurdles that can make the use of waste heat difficult. In containerized systems, compact heat exchangers with small transfer surfaces and high temperature differentials are often used, which requires extremely low entry temperatures on the part of the cooling medium. When using a heat pump, this entry temperature is decisive for the evaporating temperature of the refrigerant. To ensure a high efficiency, or rather coefficient of performance, of the heat pump, larger heat exchangers and higher entry temperatures are advantageous.

Climate-neutral neighborhood

The principle of waste heat utilization for heat supply had already been implemented by SIZ E+ in the climate-neutral city quarter (Klimaquartier) established in Esslingen am Neckar in the state of Baden-Württemberg (see H2-international May 2021). The project is based on the idea of a climate-neutral quarter with the lowest possible carbon footprint. The heart of the energy supply is an AEL plant with an ELY capacity of 1 MW, which receives surplus electricity from local photovoltaic systems as well as from other regions. The ELY waste heat at the same time serves as an energy source for a heat pump. The project follows the innovative approach of power-to-gas-and-heat, in which hydrogen is to be produced close to the consumer on a local level at sensible nodes.

In the new project H2-Quartiere, the potential implementation of this approach in six other model neighborhoods is being explored. Through the use of waste heat in the conversion process and through the short transport routes to the end users, this system approach is potentially extremely efficient and offers highly synergistic effects to the much needed clean heating and energy transition. According to the 2021 study by the German real estate association ZIA, around 20 percent of the heating demand in the buildings sector could be covered by ELY in year 2045 if half of the German hydrogen demand is produced by local ELY plants within Germany [ZIA, 2021].

Tiktak, W. J. (2019), “Heat Management of PEM Electrolysis,” TU Delft Master Thesis, p. 19, http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c046820a-72bc-4f05-b72d-e60a3ecb8c89

Flis, G. et al. (2021), “12 Insights on Hydrogen,” Agora Energiewende, p. 16, https://static.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2021/2021_11_H2_Insights/A-EW_245_H2_Insights_WEB.pdf

Fisch, M. N., Lennerts, K. et. al (2021), “Verantwortung übernehmen. Der Gebäudebereich auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität,” ZIA Zentraler Immobilien Ausschuss, pp. 144-145, https://zia-deutschland.de/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Verantwortung-uebernehmen-Gutachten.pdf

IRENA (2020), “Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction: Scaling up Electrolysers to Meet the 1.5⁰C Climate Goal,” International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, p. 52, https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf?rev=4ce868aa69b54674a789f990e85a3f00

Authors:
Prof. Dr. M. Norbert Fisch
Dr. Christian Kley
Benjamin Trippe benjamin.trippe@siz-energieplus.de
Simon Marx
All from Steinbeis-Innovationszentrum Energieplus, Braunschweig


Image: Current commercially operated electrolysis plants in Germany

Siemens Energy – Share price anticipates good business development

Siemens Energy – Share price anticipates good business development

The turnaround we’ve been forecasting for some time is in sight. Year 2024, according to the predictions of board chairman Christian Bruch, will bring profit. The share price has turned around noticeably and rose nearly 50 percent compared with the lowest price. The numbers: The turnover of 29 billion EUR lay in the realm of expectations (minus 2.5 percent is due to extraordinary developments to Ukraine alone is attributed a loss of 200 million EUR). There was a loss in the amount of 647 million EUR, which is a consequence of integrating the nearly 1 billion EUR reported loss from Siemens Gamesa.

The order volume is excellent: This rose in the fourth quarter, based on 2022/09/30 data, to an equivalent of 97.4 billion EUR – a good basis for the future of the corporation. Growth of three to seven percent is now expected and depends on Siemens Gamesa being able to be fully integrated in the next 12 to 24 months and ultimately also generate a positive profit contribution.

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Stock market valuation was a joke

Siemens Energy was still valuated a few weeks ago at just 8 billion EUR, but the current value of around 12 billion EUR does not correspond to the potential of this big business. For the weak stock market price, the planned acquisition of the remaining shares in the wind subsidiary Siemens Gamesa was to blame, as there were audits by the Spanish regulatory authority (CMMV) that dragged the integration, or full takeover, out even longer. And clear is also: 2,900 jobs (10% of total workforce) will be cut and the company Gamesa will become part of Siemens Energy.

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The positioning of Siemens Energy in important future markets such as hydrogen (order boom!), however, will sooner or later need to lead to a revaluation of the corporation – in accordance with the sustainable profit and increasing sales. Based on the current ridiculous valuation, Siemens Energy could even be a candidate for takeover. Nothing is impossible.

Those who bet on the turnaround will build up new positions or cheapen existing ones. This will not be a quick fix but should be an investment over a period of at least one to three years. There will still be many a quarter of losses, which is the fault of the costs of reorganization and the integration of Siemens Gamesa. On the other hand, there are many exciting technological developments such as rotor blades for wind turbines that can now be recycled, which has been a major problem so far.

Since a few days ago, you can see a turnaround in the stock. The stock market anticipates future developments, so little by little there will be better prices again. Since big investors like BlackRock have the area Siemens Energy is in in focus, a lot of new capital will flow in from here. In addition, Siemens Energy is back in the DAX. Stay tuned. My price target within the next 12 to 18 months: 30 euros plus.

Disclaimer

Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.

Author: written by Sven Jösting December 12th, 2022

Weichai Power – Temporarily poor figures

Weichai Power – Temporarily poor figures

We’re seeing a steep decline in earnings at Weichai Power: 2.387 billion CNY gain (minus 63.3 percent compared with the previous year) with a 35.9 percent turnover decrease to 86.74 billion CNY. The subsidiary Kion (45% stake) even saw its share price fall on the stock market from over 120 to 20 EUR (recently strongly increased again) due to a profit slump in the course of the year: 210.6 million EUR gain after the 691.1 million EUR in the prior-year period of the first nine months, although turnover in the reported period was able to be upped from 8.24 to 8.4 billion EUR. Supply chain problems as well as cost increases (for raw materials, etc.) were cited as the basis.

Weichai’s valuation – compared to the 30 billion USD of Cummins Engine – is quite low: just 10 billion USD for the market leader in diesel engines in China. In the third quarter, it suffered a slump in diesel engine deliveries to 136,000 units, which corresponds to a 32 percent decline. Shareholders are viewing all this critically, but there are still psychological influences that can’t be accounted for in this type of assessment.

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There’s no doubting the fact, however, that China is committing increasingly more to hydrogen and fuel cells, and Weichai will clearly be among the beneficiaries, as they are perfectly – also see Ballard – positioned. For us, a key investment in the hydrogen sector of China. The share has moved noticeably upwards again in recent weeks and should be able to reach quite different, and indeed higher, rates in the coming years, when the fuel cell strategy outlined in the national provisions gains momentum in implementation.

Disclaimer

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Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.

Author: written by Sven Jösting December 12th, 2022

USA: The course is set

USA: The course is set

It’s kicking off in the USA: The Inflation Reduction Act with its billions in funding (369 billion USD), among other things for the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy, is giving hope. I was able to witness this myself live via video stream at the 2nd Hydrogen Americas Summit. In Washington, many board members of well-known companies showed their histories with hydrogen and reported their plans. Hydrogen has always had a place, but the time is now here to massively expand its scope in order to solve environmental and climate issues and to see hydrogen as a game changer for the world.

Energy security too was stressed. The next ten years in hydrogen development will change the world, during which the US plans to produce an initial 10 million metric tons per year. It is fundamentally different today than it was in the decades before. The mix of measures for the ramp-up can be listed as follows:

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–           Incentives (tax breaks, cash grants)

–           Policy framework (regulations, standards)

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–           Demand conditions (markets)

–           Climate influence (climate change questions)

–           Energy security (security of supply)

–           Inflation Reduction Act as an initial spark

There’s need to become H2-ready. This entails conversion of existing infrastructure (gas pipelines, etc.) for hydrogen. There’s already an infrastructure for ammonia, so green hydrogen will see its first big market here if ammonia is used as a medium for transporting hydrogen alongside the use in fertilizer production.

The issue of hydrogen must be approached locally as well as globally at the same time, it was said. For this, cooperation between old industries and new players is necessary, and even a prerequisite and condition for a successful ramp-up of the hydrogen economy. The other side must also be taken into account, however, which is based on jealous competition, market prevention and protection of vested interests, since not all players find the development good.

But healthy competition is also needed. Here, government representatives from Canada and the US came in, and according to their statements, competition in the implementation of a hydrogen strategy will occur with true sportsmanship. Demand must be created for hydrogen. One of the first markets will be transportation (here: commercial vehicles, ships and trains) as the “driving force & source.”

A statement from Christian Bruch, board chairman of Siemens Energy, regarding the Act described it best: “This will bring about investments from many companies in the US. One can certainly debate whether America is funding too much and fueling subsidy competition, but the need for renewable energies is far too great everywhere. What makes America different from Europe: the USA is open to technology. There isn’t talk about green or blue hydrogen, but about hydrogen. The subsidy eligibility conditions are simple; everyone can understand them. There’s a wave coming that has the chance to reindustrialize the USA.”

There are 18 sectors in which hydrogen is needed. It will start off with “early mover markets,” to which heavy transport belongs (heavy-duty trucking industry). But other markets will also emerge and grow, like communication towers, as there are over 600,000 in India powered by diesel engines and 10,000 police radio towers in the USA that in the future will be powered by hydrogen via fuel cells. In the case of forklift trucks, we can already see that more and more are running on hydrogen instead of diesel or battery-electric.

Many market participants are suddenly all seeing their future in this market at the same time. Here, comparisons can be made to the beginning of the Internet, of the WWW, which changed the whole world as a new disruptive system. Whether financiers (banks, VCs) or technology suppliers, consulting firms, clients or governments – they now all want to enter the hydrogen age.

Also heard were comparisons to the beginnings of the solar industry, where 30 years ago, one kWh cost 2.50 US dollars, and today, only 0.025 cents. With batteries, it took 15 years for the energy density and price to initiate a new market. The same will happen with green hydrogen, for which the majority of analysts foresee a price of 1 USD per kg for year 2040, and expect 1 to 2 USD per kg already by year 2030.

Hydrogen will be obtained from many sources, including biogas and waste recovery. With this, it should also be “grid-friendly,” meaning able to be transported and used in the existing infrastructure (for example blended in the natural gas grid). The optimization of all components as well as their integration in particular will take on importance.

Disclaimer

Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.

Author: written by Sven Jösting December 12th, 2022