The Plug share price fell quickly to under 3 USD (2.50 USD at low) and then rose again to over 4 USD. At a price of less than 3 USD, it was possible to build up excellent trading positions (see H2-international Feb. 2024). Is there now a turnaround in the price trend or was this just a brief flare-up before the downward trend continues? Or will there even be an upward trend reversal?
There is a great opportunity for Plug Power to receive a credit (loan) totaling 1.6 billion USD from the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the Inflation Reduction Act. This is to come in the third quarter, although there are also rumors that it could be approved much earlier, but I won’t take part in this speculation. In this ideal scenario Plug will then have sufficient capital to establish and expand several production facilities, for example in Tennessee and New York, and start production there. The stock market will value this – if it happens – very positively: with higher share prices.
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But a loan is borrowed capital that has to be repaid. What are the conditions? How high is the interest or coupon? What are the repayment arrangements? Will the loan be paid out immediately in full or in installments and with target definitions (milestones)? What is Plug doing with the money? If there is no clarity about this or the loan is not approved in the first place, then the stock market will be miffed or react in disappointment, with the consequence of falling share prices.
Parallel to this is running a share placement program (at-the-market) worth 1 billion USD. Of this, already over 305 million USD, through the placement of 77.4 million shares, have flowed into Plug’s account. This will also correlate positively with the DOE credit: If this is granted, Plug’s share price will – even if possibly only for a short time – climb, and this then enables the perfect placement of shares via ATM in the ramp-up. This money from the ATM program can be used to solve the short-term liquidity problem, since the cash on hand lay at just 135 million USD December 31, 2023.
There are also other possible difficulties, because the US Treasury Department is defining how hydrogen must be produced in order to receive the subsidy of up to 3 USD per kg. Plug is relying very heavily on this funding, but there are still questions: From which location must the regenerative energy come from, in what amount and at what point in time? And at which location must the electrolysis take place? With this are, like in the EU, a series of bureaucratic hurdles – unfortunately.
Disappointing figures
What are these figures: The turnover in fiscal year 2023 amounted to, instead of the expected 1.2 billion USD, only 891 million USD. The loss even amounted to 1.4 billion USD, which corresponds to a minus of 2.30 USD per share. The press conference on the results in March raised more questions than it answered.
For example, the material inventory is to be reduced by a value of 700 million USD via the delivery of finished products to customers. Whereas in 2023 only 400 million USD was invested in this area, no more capital is to flow into here in 2024.
The production at locations such as Georgia, Tennessee and Louisiana is to be ramped up and contribute to an increase in the profit margin. These sites are already capable of producing liquid hydrogen for the company itself and supplying it to customers. The Texas and New York sites will only be continued once the DOE loan has been approved, as otherwise they tie up too much liquidity.
In addition, there is to be price raisings (among others for H2, stacks and electrolyzers) and a cost-cutting program of 75 million USD. Liquid hydrogen is currently still being purchased, which entails losses, but is to be replaced by self-produced hydrogen.
After Plug Power – I reported in detail – established production facilities in the USA and internationally in a variety of ways and thus severely strained liquidity, the planned cost-cutting program amounting to 75 million USD is now to take effect. Whether this amount will be sufficient may be doubted, however, because it seems downright ridiculous in view of the Plug’s liquidity problems and comes much too late. That the company has started to produce liquid hydrogen at several locations and has delivered to customers like Amazon and Walmart is good news for now, but will at first have little influence on the company figures.
With orders for electrolyzers too has Plug scored, but it will be some time before significant sales and thus profits are visible here. That the Saudi sovereign wealth fund Public Investment Fund (PIF) at the end of 2023, with the selling of 5.67 million shares, has completely withdrawn from Plug is not a good sign.
Summary
Words must now be followed by deeds, because all too often very full-bodied forecasts have been made. That Plug will bring partners on board for some projects seems very likely. And also the spin-off (partial sale) of some units is conceivable, if liquidity cannot be adequately presented soon. However, there is currently no need for action. Plug is clearly on my watch list, though, as the company is active in the right markets at the right time. Once the financial problems have been solved, there will possibly also be changes in management, which has lost trust, and Plug will continue on its way.
Over 170 million shares sold short (short interest, status mid-February) are dubious, however, as there is massive speculation against the company or – keywords Amazon and Walmart (warrants) – a form of hedging is being used – no guarantees. All the same, already 10 million shares were short covered in January/February. On the other hand, it is this short interest that can sometimes have a price-driving effect via the covering (short squeeze) when good news is reported. Everything has two sides.
There is still no need for action, however, since the publication of the figures for the first quarter is pending. That various business media in Germany count Plug Power among their top investments in hydrogen befuddles me, though. There are more convincing H2 investments.fa
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
Siemens Energy is on the right track, as the latest figures show. Although the wind subsidiary Gamesa, like before, is registering losses, all other divisions are doing well and are profitable – trend rising. That the stock market also sees it that way is shown by the share price being at times over 14 EUR. You must simply give the integration of Siemens Gamesa time. That won’t happen in weeks, but rather in one to two years. Starting 2026, this unit should be profitable again and by then enable a cost reduction potential of 400 million EUR.
At the same time, the market for offshore wind is growing enormously, and there will be more and more synergies, such as with electrolyzers for offshore hydrogen production, visible. Here, things will grow together that belong together, because renewable wind power should be converted into molecules on site, which are then transported by ship and pipeline to consumers. Whether the onshore wind division – and this is where the problems lie at Gamesa – can and should be maintained as an activity is questionable, if the technical problems cannot be solved sustainably.
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Siemens is divided into many divisions, all of which are growing at different rates and contribute to the success of the conglomerate. The division Gas Services reported a turnover of 10.9 billion EUR at an operating profit of 1.033 billion EUR. The division Grid Technologies has made 7.2 billion EUR turnover at 0.54 billion EUR profit, and Transformation of Industry had 4.4 billion EUR turnover at 0.228 billion EUR profit. Let me make a simple thought experiment here:
What would happen if Siemens Energy would take one of these divisions public as a spin-off (as a company share), like what parent company Siemens did with Siemens Energy? Could perhaps 30 to 40 percent of Gas Services proportionately be worth 2, 3 or 4 billion EUR on the stock market and Siemens Energy allow this equivalent value via an initial public offering (IPO) as an inflow of capital? With this capital, Siemens Energy could then finance strategic acquisitions from its own resources. New business models could be developed in order to bring together the offshore wind division of Siemens Gamesa with the electrolyzer division, with the aim of producing offshore hydrogen. Wouldn’t it even be interesting, to enter into hydrogen production itself with partners and customers and to bring in hardware from Siemens Energy to projects as assets or contributions in kind? All this would open up new and sustainable sales areas for Siemens Energy, is my purely theoretical consideration.
New on the supervisory board: Prof. Veronika Grimm
The appointment of Prof. Veronika Grimm to the supervisory board of Siemens Energy – criticism came from the ranks of the economic experts due to possible conflicts of interest – I think it is expedient, because this is where expertise from the theoretical field flows into the practical work of a company. Grimm with her expertise in the energy sector has a special position in the council of wise men, because she thinks pragmatically and is open to technology, and also esteems hydrogen with the importance that the supermolecule has. From this Siemens Energy can profit. On topics that directly affect Siemens Energy she will not issue an opinion. In advisory bodies like the economic council sit theorists.
Record order intake
The power plant strategy finally adopted by the German government (see p. 26) leaves rooms for a lot of imagination for Siemens Energy, because many a major order for gas turbines could and should land here, as there are only few capable providers like Siemens Energy anyway. It is a good sign that the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 was able to be concluded with a profit before special effects of 208 million EUR. The impressive 24 percent increase in order intake to 15.4 billion EUR in the quarter catapulted this to a record level of over 118 billion EUR and, if it continues like this, is also expected to reach 140 to 150 billion EUR on an annualized basis (estimate).
Summary: Buy and leave alone. As a full-service provider, the conglomerate is in the right and, above all, high-growth markets of energy production, especially in the area of hydrogen, perfectly positioned.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
The press conference in February 2024 on the fourth quarter results and the entire year 2023 and, above all, the outlook for the current fiscal year support my very optimistic assessment of this start-up. Of the 42 built Tre FCEVs, 35 were delivered in the fourth quarter. Seven are currently being tested by fleet operators. The battery-electric trucks, Tre EVs, after the problems with the batteries and their replacement in the course of the year, will return to their buyers by the end of the second quarter.
Nikola can immediately sell every built Tre FCEV, because the demand is there, but there are now not yet enough parts from suppliers. In 2024, 300 to 350 are to be sold. Strong is the position with the coupons called (California) HVIP vouchers, from which Nikola can sell almost all (99 percent, 355 out of 360) for hydrogen-powered vehicles. We’re talking about up to 408,000 USD subsidization per FC truck. With the BEVs, there were 95 vouchers by the end of January 2024.
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Focusing on California and Canada in the initial phase is smart in view of the support programs there. In parallel, Nikola is working via its subsidiary HYLA on important locations (including port facilities in California such as LA or in Orlando, Florida) to initially supply the necessary hydrogen with the help of mobile H2 refueling stations (significantly less regulatory work than with fixed locations), to then set up fixed H2 refueling stations depending on experience and demand.
On top of that is the partnership with FirstElement Fuel, a company that already operates locations at important hubs (ports such as Orlando) and supplies 100 to 200 trucks per day with the necessary hydrogen there. Sufficient hydrogen is available in any case, according to a take from the press conference. That already includes the Tre FCEVs to be delivered and their H2 requirements. Currently in development are nine locations of their own HYLA program in addition to those of FirstElement Fuel. Altogether, over 60 H2 refueling stations will emerge there in the future.
All important positions filled – with top talent
The CFO position has now also been filled: Thomas B. Okray is the new chief financial officer. He can boast an impressive CV: Okray was CFO at companies like Eaton, but also in a leading position in the logistics division (fulfillment) at Amazon and 14 years in top positions at GM – also as CFO.
With Jonathan Pertchik, Nikola is bringing in a managing director that already been successful as CEO at TravelCenters of America. The company was acquired by BP and is one of the largest truck stop operators in the USA. Here someday, hydrogen refueling stations from Nikola could be positioned – comparable to Pilot Flying J – if it came to a cooperation (an idea).
Ole Höfelmann will be, via the subsidiary HYLA, president of Nikola Energy. Before, he was responsible for the company’s global infrastructure activities. In his career, he has held numerous management positions for 30 years at Air Liquide, among other things as CEO of Air Liquide Spain with 3,000 employees. In addition, he worked at Plug Power as head of the electrolysis division. Furthermore, he is a board member of various associations such as the California Fuel Cell Partnership.
Carla Tully completes the executive board. She has held leadership positions in Fortune 150 companies, among other things as co-founder of Earthrise Energy (over 1.5 GW of renewable energy), was on the board of the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Forum and in management positions at MAP Energy (2.4 billion USD market cap) and AES Corp. Nikola can thus draw on extensive expertise in the areas of M&A, private equity and CSR. Therefore, Nikola is optimally equipped for the future in all leadership positions.
Truck in use – Customers very satisfied
Several customer reports on long-distance journeys with hydrogen-powered trucks are very positive: Coyote Container drove from the Port of Oakland to Long Beach, then to Iowa and Ontario and back to the Port of Portland – 866 miles (1,393 km) on just one tank of H2. MTA Trucks drove 519 km (322 mi) from Edmonton to Calgary and back. The tank was still 40 percent full at the end of the route – at minus ten degrees Celsius. Other examples refer to trips of over 1,000 miles in one day with a full load.
Special potential with the Badger?
Yes, you read correctly: In 2023, Ember acquired the market rights (IP, design) and prototype for this strong-looking SUV named Badger from Nikola. Nikola sold these items as part of an equity swap (exchange via contribution in kind) to Ember and received 30 percent of the company in return. No capital will flow from Nikola, as it is concentrating on the e-truck. Certain is that the Badger, as an FC/battery SUV, could give serious competition to the Cybertruck of Tesla, should it come onto the market in time. Whether Ember and other OEMs and partners will actually implement this project is, however, still unclear.
Psychologically, however, it is a strong sign that Nikola is indirectly in the boat here. It will be interesting to see. Because the Badger once served as the basis for a cooperation with GM and resulted in a two-digit billion valuation of Nikola Motors at the stock exchange. There were 6,000 pre-orders at the time. Just think of it as a nice side topic, but it could be very exciting when things get concrete here and well-known names such as Magna, Dana, GM and many others pick up the ball. Consider this: The design of such a car too, which you already have, also costs a lot of capital – not to mention that the start of production requires a lot of capital, even if there are companies (OEMs) that could ramp up existing production capacities very quickly. Then, the Badger would be on the market in just a few years. Anything is conceivable.
Summary
With over 460 million USD in free capital (unrestricted cash), the company is initially well positioned. Cost-cutting measures, optimization and normal scaling effects in production (the more trucks are built and sold, the lower the unit price and the closer the break-even point becomes) will characterize the year as a whole, where the capital use on a quarterly basis is to noticeably sink. And 400 to 450 trucks of both types are the initial sales target for 2024, with expected turnover at 150 to 170 million USD. It should be noted, however, that order intake could end up significantly higher, even if it doesn’t affect turnover until 2025.
Nikola is still in the start-up phase. Theoretically, 2,400 trucks per year could already be produced if all supplier parts were available. As far as the share price is concerned, CEO Stephen Girsky repeated himself, Solomon-like, when he said – to the effect – that the stock market itself will be the best judge if the forecasts made come true. Bound to that is my expectation that we will soon see prices of over 1 USD (or significantly more) again when what is forecasted happens. A reverse split (share consolidation) as a measure to raise the share price over 1 USD is then naturally superfluous. (With a price of under 1 USD, it can theoretically come to a delisting of the NASDAQ on July 7 after a 180-day period that however can be extended.)
The price behavior of the share at this time will still be dominated by short sellers and naked short sellers that massively bet against the company and the share price. Mid-February, 217.6 million shares were sold short. This short interest could with good news lead to short covering (in the extreme case to a squeeze) – is my personal view, and only that.
On the other side, institutional investors like Norges Bank (who holds 10.25 percent in Nikola), Blackrock, Vanguard and others are buying, which can be seen as a good sign and should. Against the company founder Trevor Milton Nikola has already won in court, and it is now working on an enforcement title. After all, it entails 165 million USD. Milton still holds over 51 million shares, which could possibly be collected as a partial payment – no guarantees.
The share price is now being driven primarily by incoming orders for e-trucks. Out of the current test series with fleet operators could result – is my expectation – also many a large order.
Nikola is to be seen as a start-up. This is a new, disruptive market at the beginning of a long-term trend. Until the transition to the profit zone (2025/26), a lot of capital still needs to be invested (logical losses), but the stock exchange will gladly make it available if the forecasts come true and anticipate it in the share price development. The investment bank Baird recently announced a target price of 2 USD. Other investment banks may follow. The volatility of the share will remain very high. Daily fluctuations of five or even more than ten percent are normal. Not for investors with weak nerves.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
FuelCell Energy has with SOFC fuel cell power plants built its own capacities for clean energy totaling 62.8 MW (previous year: 43.7 MW). The company’s own high-temperature fuel cell serves as the basis for use in electrolysis, where the company has recognized great potential for itself. Along with that are various research projects, among others in Canada, and the company relies on specially developed carbon capture technology that is designed to avoid emissions and generate emissions-free energy at the same time. So far, so good. But you can’t avoid thinking of competitors such as Bloom Energy, Sunfire and Ceres Power (indirectly also Weichai Power and Bosch), which pursue similar visions and technological approaches to FuelCell Energy.
What all this means in terms of order and implementation potential is unfortunately not yet clear to me. The figures so far are sobering: The first quarter (fiscal year 31.01.24) brought a loss of 44.4 million USD. Turnover fell in the quarter to 16.7 million USD. Of liquidity, the company has no lack: 348.4 million USD was in the bank January 31, 2024. However, there has been a constant outflow of capital for years, aided by constant share placements on the stock exchange via an ATM program. Projects such as that with Exxon in Holland sound promising, but say very little about the potential. In South Korea, former partner Posco, via its subsidiary Korea Fuel Cells, forfeited the option of further orders in supplement to a previous project. Not a good sign.
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Joint venture with ExxonMobil
At first glance, it sounds promising: FuelCell Energy and ExxonMobil have agreed to build a production plant for carbon capture in Rotterdam. It entails the avoidance of CO2 emissions or the storage and making usable, without generating a carbon footprint. CCS stands for carbon capture and storage. After successful deployment directly in the neighborhood of important industries, the project that is based on the technology of FuelCell Energy could be deployed at all production sites of ExxonMobil where CO2 emissions are generated. The process is to generate heat as a by-product and enable the production of green hydrogen.
Unfortunately, there is no indication of the exact investment volume (invest on the part of FuelCell Energy) and the order volume that can be derived from this. In any case, the project is financially supported by the EU via the Emissions Trading System Innovation Fund. ExxonMobil and FuelCell Energy have already been working on the associated technologies for some time, so this specific project represents another important milestone.
The cash cushion is safeguarding the share price well. The stock exchange will rediscover FuelCell Energy when it can be shown how technologies such as carbon capture and SOEC can generate orders and earn money. That will take some time. The share is always suitable for trading, as good news quickly leads to major price swings.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
The share of Cummins Engine brings joy: The share price rose to a new high for the year, after the company was able to settle a long-standing legal dispute – it was about non-compliance with emission standards for engines – with a penalty payment of 1.6 billion USD, and with that this chapter is closed. The total cost of this settlement was 2.04 billion USD. Regarding the value per share, Cummins earned a good 19 USD in year 2023, if including the abovementioned costs. So it was about 6 USD per share.
The dividend remains at a high level – recently 1.68 USD per share in the quarter. Turnover increased by ten percent to 34.1 billion USD in year 2023 and should also further grow in the future. The subsidiary Accelera, which concentrates on the clean energy business (engines, batteries, fuel cells, electrolysis, etc.), was able to increase turnover to 354 million USD and should in the current fiscal year bump this up to 450 to 500 million USD. This area belongs, via the program Destination Zero, to one of the company’s future fields of focus and requires considerable investment. This division will therefore report a loss this year of 400 million USD, which, however, has its logical basis in the high initial investments. Even so, Accelera alone was already able to build up an order volume for electrolyzers of 500 million USD. The spin-off of the subsidiary Atmus Filtration Technologies to the shareholders (swap offer) is also about to be finalized. Cummins holds over 80 percent in this. The company will be valuated with 1.9 billion USD.
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New engine development HELMTM
A share price driver, however, can be the development of a new generation of engines. These units, based on the X15 engine platform, can be operated with natural gas as well as with hydrogen (starting 2028) and e-fuels. HELMTM stands for high efficiency, low emission, multiple fuels. They should accordingly contribute to significantly reducing the diesel demand of today’s customers. Test runs are underway with Walmart and UPS, and also with Paccar for its US class 8 truck Kenworth T680. Cummins is investing 1 billion USD in this project for the time being.
At the current price level – the company has a market capitalization of about 39 billion USD – the current valuation seems sufficient to me, where Cummins is considered a standard stock with a high dividend yield. I would now remember and rather bet on the comparable competitor from China, Weichai Power, as this company is only half as highly valued as Cummins and additionally owns a special potential in the area of hydrogen and fuel cells. Cummins but will go its own way in hydrogen. The subsidiary responsible for this, Accelera, has very high growth potential, which will have a positive impact on the company as a whole in a few years’ time.
Disclaimer
Each investor must always be aware of their own risk when investing in shares and should consider a sensible risk diversification. The FC companies and shares mentioned here are small and mid cap, i.e. they are not standard stocks and their volatility is also much higher. This report is not meant to be viewed as purchase recommendations, and the author holds no liability for your actions. All information is based on publicly available sources and, as far as assessment is concerned, represents exclusively the personal opinion of the author, who focuses on medium- and long-term valuation and not on short-term profit. The author may be in possession of the shares presented here.
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